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bat

Stock Picking

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Let me first say I do not have any training on this, just showing you what a guy I have been watching on his site has been doing. So don't go buy anything I post here because I put it in here... you are on your own doing so. I just find it interesting. I have watched his pick for quite a while and his track record so far is pretty darn good.

 

Here is his latest pick.. (Quote: Today I bought TIBCO Software (TIBX) at 25.59. I will sell it in 4-6 weeks at 29.48.) Today being Feb. 14th.

Edited by bat

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I think he will miss the boat on this pick, today being 6 weeks and a day later.. the price is still around $26.15.. we'll update again later.. it will be the first one I saw him pick that didn't get to where he said it would in the time frame he states. :P

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Sorry about your luck bat. That's about my luck with the stock market too, but Lord willing, hopefully my luck will turn around soon so I can pay STINKING TAXES! :lol:

Gary

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Oh I didn't buy any Gary... too chicken for the last couple of years.. just thought I would show his pick off a bit, he is good... I had to pick the one to show as his only bad one it seems.. Japan stuff probably interfered with the price... we'll see.

 

These are his last three picks I am tracking... as I said above, if you buy any of these you are on your own... I am just typing here... not telling you to go buy anything.. it is allways risky to take someone else's untrained advise picking stocks.

 

Feb. 18 he purchased TIBX for $25.59, his selling point is $29.48 in 4-6 weeks. Overdue!

Mar. 11 he purchased ALTR for $40.02, his selling point is $46.03 in 4-6 weeks.

Mar. 18 he purchased HS for $36.67, his selling point is $42.26 in 4-6 weeks.

Edited by bat

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Not sure what he is basing his buying/selling off of. But, you could probably throw darts at a board and do just as good...

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Ernie knows his stuff....he does some of the best fundamental analysis I've ever read....he doesn't use technical analysis and it cost him some better entries at times, but he also gets in on some runners when the market is moving.....and his selections do move at a healthy beta compared to the market's performance....

 

His 4 to 6 week time frame is a light caveat at best....he holds all positions without a stop loss and takes his lumps when the market dumps....He maintains 8 to 10 positions most often.....and diversifies by entering at periodical randomness and partial position sizes.....he's never "all in" and rides the bull very well....

 

Bat's testimony is half the story....Ernie had a great 09' and awesome 2010' results....but so did the market....he's currently holding more then the three positions Bat mentions and he's doing pretty good so far in 2011'

 

hags

 

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Hags beat me to it.. I have been very impressed with his picks last year and even beyond. He is a great guy with kids as well helping out in many ways with their needs in life and health. I agree with everything Hags posted.

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Good to know that you guys have followed him and that he knows his stuff.. I am not a huge believer in fundamental and technical analysis, but there are a few people who can use it and make it work (at least most of the time).. Just curious, how did he do in 2008???

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Perplexed by your comments Coondog....How can you not believe in FA and/or TA? What system do you believe in?

 

How did Ernie do in 08'?....he avoided the market all most all together...He was in cash most of the year....

 

hags

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Gotcha.. I was wondering if he pulled it all into cash and when.

 

I am not a trader. It's not that i don't believe in it, its that I really don't follow it. Until someone can show me a system (like this) that can consistently outperform the market at a low cost, I am skeptical. I know a guy here in town that uses technical analysis. He has a radio show and tons of clients. His big claim to fame is that he was totally out of the market in 2008. I believe that he uses the 200-day moving average. The problem is that his system got the clients out way to early back in 2007 and did not get them back in until way too late in 2009. Sure, he missed most of the downturn in 2008, but he also costs his clients by sitting on the sidelines form most of 2009. I would bet good money that our clients who rode out the storm are in much better shape right now than his are. The problem with most of these analysis is that they have to be correct twice.. When to get out and when to get back in. Once is hard enough. Twice is usually impossible. I think that technical analysis can be good in the short term. But I am still skeptical of it being the best philosophy for long-term investors. Plus, most people simply do not have the discipline to sit and follow it day after day for long periods of time.

 

Just my $.02.. If it works for you then knock yourself out...

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TIBX hit $29.54 Friday... that's one of the picks just took a little longer this time. Like I said he is pretty darn good.. :)

 

 

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Ernie hit another one today selling ALTR @ $46.08, he is indeed a smart dude! :) That was another 15% increase.

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He did it again today,,, HS $42.35 with a 15% gain. I track his picks, maybe he will give me one that I can afford one day :D until then it is fun watching his work.

 

 

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I first went ahead and put his link in here but decided to instead just send it to you gary... check your pm. I don't want anyone jumping on a stock because of something I posted... as always you are on your own doing so...

Edited by bat

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